ABSTRACT
The pandemic crisis caused by COVID-19 jeopardizes our progressive social, ecological, and economic development. Many studies have focused on its impact on sustainable development in emerging economies and rapid regional development. We attempted to create a study from a distinct point of view. We investigate how socioeconomic factors contribute to regional variation in the incidence and death rate of COVID-19 risk and attempt to develop statistical modeling with a focus on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We conducted quantitative research using structural equation modeling based on structure variance, also known as partial least square path modeling. Our findings suggest that socioeconomic factors have a significant impact on the incidence and mortality rate of COVID-19. COVID-19 infection rates are highest in developed countries in general. As discovered in this study, socioeconomic factors have a positive effect on the incidence rate but a negative effect on the death rate. The findings provide policy recommendations for controlling and preventing COVID-19 transmission and lowering the death rate in the ASEAN community. In general, the paper adds to our limited understanding of the socioeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022 the author(s).
ABSTRACT
A significant threat to mental health emerged in children during COVID-19. This study aims to identify the effects of COVID-19 on the mental health of children in Bandung while studying at home. The cross-sectional study was conducted online from August 28 to September 4, 2020, among 426 parents who had at least one child aged 5 to 15 years. Moreover, K-means clustering was used to group 4 categories based on mental health disturbances, and confirmation factors analysis was performed to identify the relationship between parenting behaviour and children's mental health, then assessed by the chi-square test. Children were divided into four groups, in which 52% had subthreshold mental disorders (mean Major Depressive Disorder (MDD)-10;2.45), 32% had a mild (mean MDD-10;5.31), 13% had a moderate (mean MDD-10;12.5), and 3% of the children had severe (mean MDD-10;15.3). The percentage of mental disorders in children is higher in children with a higher educational level of the parents, families contracted COVID-19 and abnormal behaviour of the parents. This paper shows the low proportion of children suffering from mental disorders in Bandung during the pandemic. Applying psychological intervention strategies and improving household financial conditions, parenting literacy, childcare and job security can all help improve children's psychological status.
ABSTRACT
Since the world is facing health problems due to COVID-19, Indonesia was not success to surge the outbreak. In addition to the risk of health problems, this pandemic is also disrupting the global economy. The rupiah exchange rate also saw a devaluation during the COVID 19 outbreak. The Indonesian economy is expected to grow negatively in the third quarter of 2020 and predicted to continue until the end of the year. The measure from the government impacted the economic circumstances then along with the decline in new cases of the spread of COVID-19 the government was implementing a new normal, after the completion of large scale social restrictions weakened the economic development, with one of its goals to improve and try to save Indonesia’s economy from a possible worse recession. This study attempts to use the forecasting method to find out whether the application of the new normal will strengthen the Rupiah exchange rate in the coming period. The methods that will be used is Long Short Term Memory as the best model to overcome long-term dependencies to obtain a predictive model that most closely approximates existing data patterns. The most suitable model is Long Short Term Memory with 50 epochs using five hidden neurons. Based on the results, it seems that the Rupiah exchange rate tends to weaken in the next five-day.
ABSTRACT
Indonesia is one of the countries affected by COVID-19. This disease has spread to all provinces of Indonesia, including West Java. West Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia with the most cases of COVID-19 and becomes one of the epicentres, therefore, the regional government has issued a policy to manage the transmission chain. The guidelines implemented by the government, including social distancing and the Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB). In addition, the implementation of PSBB is expected to disrupt the transmission chain because it is more strictly with more sanctions. After the spread is expected to decrease, the government, then, introduced a New Normal system, in which activities will gradually return to normal, but with strict health protocols. Furthermore, this study will find out whether PSBB and New Normal have a significant impact on daily new cases in West Java. The causal impact analysis will be conducted in this study to showed that the implementation of the PSBB and New Normal system has a significant impact on the increase of daily new cases in West Java. The results obtained indicate that there are significant changes after the PSBB policy changed to the new normal. If the number of cases continues to increase based on the results of this study, it can be implemented, among others, that the West Java Provincial Government can enforce the PSBB in this region. © 2021 Institute of Physics Publishing. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Indonesia is one of the countries affected by COVID-19. This disease has spread to all provinces of Indonesia, including West Java. West Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia with the most cases of COVID-19 and becomes one of the epicentres, therefore, the regional government has issued a policy to manage the transmission chain. The guidelines implemented by the government, including social distancing and the Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB). In addition, the implementation of PSBB is expected to disrupt the transmission chain because it is more strictly with more sanctions. After the spread is expected to decrease, the government, then, introduced a New Normal system, in which activities will gradually return to normal, but with strict health protocols. Furthermore, this study will find out whether PSBB and New Normal have a significant impact on daily new cases in West Java. The causal impact analysis will be conducted in this study to showed that the implementation of the PSBB and New Normal system has a significant impact on the increase of daily new cases in West Java. The results obtained indicate that there are significant changes after the PSBB policy changed to the new normal. If the number of cases continues to increase based on the results of this study, it can be implemented, among others, that the West Java Provincial Government can enforce the PSBB in this region. © 2021 Institute of Physics Publishing. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Indonesia is one of the countries affected by COVID-19. The Indonesian government and local governments have issued several guidelines to limit the spread of cases that spread across people in the form of restrictions on physical activity between people. One of the guidelines is large-scale social restrictions (PSBB). PSBB is being implemented in several regions of Indonesia with high COVID-19 cases, including Jakarta, West Java and East Java. Recently, East Java became a province with the highest number of daily new cases, reaching more than 300 reported cases in one day. Some time ago, several regions in Indonesia stopped PSBB policy and took the direction of the New Normal, including East Java. This study suggests machine learning methods that are recognized based on high accuracy, containing Extreme Learning Machines, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Auto-Regressive Neural Networks to predict the number of daily new, active, confirmed, recovered, and death cases. The MLP (10,10) model was obtained as the best model for predicting the five case variables in East Java for the next 7 days. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the cases in East Java are still increasing. According to this study, the application of the PSBB and the abolition of the PSBB directive, which was replaced by the New Normal directive, had a significant impact on the increase in cases in the East Java region. This is in line with the estimation results, which show that cases in East Java tend to increase with fluctuating new daily cases. © 2020 the author(s).